Is it the "moment" to buy $MOMENT Group? YES!
Swedish micro cap, deleveraging play, legislative tailwind
Moment Group AB
Date: 9 January 2026
Ticker: MOMENT (Nasdaq Stockholm)
Price: ~5.58 sek (Swedish krona)
Market Cap: ~140.7 M sek (micro cap)
TL;DR
Moment Group is a Swedish experience industry company currently undergoing a turnaround. They do musicals, shows, etc and own restaurants, dance clubs, bowling place, etc.
2-pronged catalysts
Deleveraging by selling assets
Tailwind from the Swedish 2026 legislation changes
Catalyst 1
When? Q4 2025 reporting in 6 Feb 2026
Deleveraging : turning into net cash; solidity ratio turns into positive
Estimated FY 2025 EBIT range 15-30M sek
A potential of 0-200% upside from the current share price (0 meaning the deleveraged play is priced in and EBIT on the low range) due to expansion in valuation multiples
Any increase of EBIT from 15M may lead to price appreciation.
Catalyst 2:
When? FY 2025 i.e. 12-15 months
3 specific Swedish legislative tailwinds in 2026
Estimated FY 2026 EBIT 25.5-40.5M sek
A potential 150-250% from the current share price due to increasing profitability and expansion in valuation multiples
A classic play of “beating the street“ due to the extreme debt valuation and micro market cap (if I am right)
For you value investing and numbers nerd that are still here, let’s get straight to it! (Links to references all below)
The business
Moment Group AB is a leading Scandinavian player in the experience industry. The group operates through four distinct segments that create, produce, and deliver everything from large-scale musicals to corporate events and activity-based dining.
Below is the segments, based on 1.1B sek revenue FY 2024
The problem? It was considered a growth darling pre-pandemic and acquiring lots of businesses with low-interest debt. Then pandemic and high interest happened.
Lynch category
A turnaround play
Fast-Change or Slow-Change industry?
Slow-change
What is the Moat?
Physical scarcity: owning or holding long-term leases of 16 iconic venues in Sweden and other major Scandinavian cities.
Network effect of venues. They can “tour“ the same production all around, minimizing costs for expensive set, costume, etc
IP & Artist access: Swedish legends like Magnus Uggla and Roxette estate have stayed with them for 30+ years. They also secure long-term rights for show licences.
Is the Moat widening or narrowing?
I’d say wide, but not widening.
Can a “dummy” run this business?
No, a dummy cannot run this business.
The “dummy“ CEO ran the group to the ground pre-pandemic with the acquisition spree, and it was the then-CFO and current-CEO Martin du Hane who led the current turnaround.
Together with Leif West (representing the major shareholder), who will make sure that the turnaround actually happens.
Skin in the Game?
Gelba Management AB: 26.5% ownership
Chairman Leif West represents Gelba, which is a private investment vehicle of Per Taube. Per Taube is known for buying distressed real estate assets (Arlandastand, Steninge Slott) and using long-term patience to turn them into cash flow machines. He kept increasing his shares throughout 2024-2025, buying potentially at a price >7.0 sek.CEO du Hane: 22,500 shares
This equals to 123,000 sek. With his FY 2024 gross remuneration of about 3.6M sek, this is not much but it is something.CEO of 2Entertain segment Janne Andersson: 0.7%
This equals to nominal value of ~1M sek.
In the end of the day, the main owners are also current operators trying to ensure the turnover is happening.
Good capital allocators?
In terms of the turnaround, CEO Martin du Hane and Chairman Leif West have been good capital allocators, focusing everything on reducing debt:
Tickster sale in December 2025 for 62.5M sek.
Pruning the portfolio and taking impairments in 2024 for 41M sek.
Conservative allocation of the float “Prepaid Ticket Revenue“ during the high-interest years
No dividend policy
The integrity and track record
Good for turnaround play so far.
Martin du Hane & Leif West are not playing a 'growth' or ‘shareholder value creation‘ game. By selling Tickster and stopping the dividend, they are effectively buying back the company's future from its bondholders. It shows high level of financial discipline.
Is the Balance Sheet a Fortress?
Nope, that is why we are here. Their debt structure as of Q3 2025:
Bond loan
109 M sek
Interest rate of 8-9%
Interest expense: 9.5M sek / year
Maturity in March 2027
Maximum pay down of 50M sek according to the covenants
COVID deferred tax
23M sek
1-2M sek (amortization+interest) paid monthly until Aug 2027
Quality of cash flow
Moment Group has a unique cash flow profile driven by Prepaid Ticket Revenues.
Positive Float: Customers pay for tickets months in advance (especially for 2Entertain). This provides upfront liquidity that the company uses to fund productions before they premiere.
In Liabilities side, accounted as Prepaid ticket revenues. In Assets side, accounted as Cash and Cash Equivalents.Seasonality - typically loss-loss-loss-profit
Q1: stable, benefiting from the tail-end of winter theater runs when the Prepaid ticket revenues becomes liquid.
Q2 & Q3: Low Season with operating losses. Many theaters are closed over the summer in the Nordics.
Q4: essentially funds the rest of the year.
The floor
The pessimistic floor: if my analysis is wrong, your money is gone. Though with the Tickster divestment this is very unlikely.
The realistic floor:
They do rights issue, diluting current shareholders - which is hard to believe with Gelba being the shareholders.
They take more debt from Gelba.
Per Taube / Gelba gets tired, take-over and de-list Moment Group. His close-to 30% ownership might trigger a takeover bid under the Swedish law [1]. Total market cap of Moment Group is less than 5% of Gelba’s total AUM [2], so it is entirely possible. They bought consistently through 2024-2025 with share price >7.0 sek. This will be still 20-25% upside in this case.
The main triggers for the floor valuation may be:
A COVID-like event
A huge jump in leasing costs e.g. due to interest rate hikes
Cancellation of pre-paid tours due to artists being unable to perform, theaters collapsing, etc.
At this point, it is too difficult to guess the outcome… so better be ready to lose your investment and allocate your asset accordingly.
The Catalyst: Why Now?
There are 2 catalysts coming, the deleveraging and the tailwind catalysts.
The deleveraging catalyst
The sale of Tickster in Dec 2025:
Headline sale price of 62.5M sek
Tax-exempt according to Swedish tax law [3]
Less transaction cost
Net cash proceed: 60M sek
Explicit mention by the CEO & Chairman that this will be used to strengthen the balance sheet and increase liquidity [4]
According to the bond debt covenants, they can pay down max 50M sek now.
So the bond loan pro forma:
109M - 50M = 59M sek
Interest rate of 8-9%
Interest expense: ~5M sek annualy instead of 9.3M annualy, gaining 4.3M sek annualy
The Swedish tax office allows a deduction of up to 5M sek in negative net interest [5]. This means they gain 4.3M sek / year on the bottom line without needing to sell more show tickets or refinance debt! (for 2026)
Considering the effect as a whole:
Q3 2025 (today’s market cap)
Cash: 73M sek
Interest-bearing debt (excluding leases): 132M sek
Net debt (excluding leases): 59M sek
Shareholder equity: -14M sek
Interest coverage (excluding leases): negative
(excluding one-off 14M / 9.3M = 1.5x)EV (excluding leases): 200M sek
Solidity ratio: negative
Q4 2025
Tickster sale 60M in cash
Cash in 60M sek
Asset out 13.5M sek (Tickster BV)
Equity gain 46.5M sek (Tickster profit)
Debt repayment -50M sek
Cash out -50M sek (bond repayment)
Cash: 83M sek
Interest-bearing debt (excluding leases): 82M sek
Net debt (excluding leases): -1M sek (net cash!)
Shareholder equity: Q3 = 32.5M
New assets = old assets - Tickster BV + net cash in = 955M - 13.5 + 10M = 956M sek
Interest coverage (excluding leases): negative
(excluding one-off 14M / 5M = 2.8x)EV (excluding leases) = 140M
Solidity ratio: 3.1% (positive! Scandic Hotels is 6.3% for reference)
With healthy finances on paper and positive solidity ratio, they can re-finance the debt with lower interest rate and they are again opened for investing from pension funds and institutional investor.
Let’s see what their valuation will be after the debt pay down. Since their earnings the past years involved so many one-off items, let’s take a look from FY 2022 until TTM:
FY 2022:
Reported EBIT 63M sek - 25M sek (one off as pandemic support) = 38M sekFY 2023:
Reported EBIT 67M sek - 12M sek (settlement gains) = 55M sekFY 2024;
Reported EBIT -16M sek + 45M sek (Q4 impairments) = 29M sek
TTM:
Reported EBIT -31M sek + 45M sek (Q4 2024) = 14M sek
Note that reported EBIT TTM -31M sek is affected by renovation closure in Cirkusbygningen in Copehagen (comparison between Q2-Q3 2024 vs 2025 may indicate a one-off operation loss of ~15M sek, but we will ignore this now).Ignoring the Copenhagen renovation one-off cost, we can assume that FY 2025 adjusted EBIT should be about 15-30M sek.
Low at 15M sek: assuming similar Q4 2025 performance as Q4 2024.
High at 30M sek: assuming back to FY 2024 (as if Cirkusbygningen is not closed) and/or due to economic tailwinds and increase in production.
If Cirkusbygningen is open i.e. for 2026, the EBIT range would realistically be 25-40M sek.
Net earnings will be: 5.5-17.5M sek (5M bond interest and deduction, 3M Q4 deferred tax payment, 20.6% Swedish corporate tax)
Pro forma multiples (assuming the new healthier finances):
For reference
SkiStar P/E ~22-23x, op.EV/EBIT 14-16x
Scandic hotels P/E ~27-28x, op.EV/EBIT 11-13x
Small-cap leisure P/E 9-11x, op.EV/EBIT 8-10x
P/E of 9-11x, this implies market cap of 55-175M sek —> between -60% - 25%
op. EV/EBIT (excluding leases) 8-10x
Pro forma op. EV/EBIT 4.7-9.3x —> between 0-200% upside
I believe EV/EBIT is a more suitable multiple, but the P/E is there to ground my expectation.
Basically, for the stock to appreciate, the Q4 2025 EBIT needs to be equal to or higher than Q4 2024 EBIT. Is this likely? Yes, according to these:
The additions of major venues like Lorensbergsteatern and reopened Cirkusbygningen suggest significant increase in shows and events in late 2025 compared to late 2024
Swedish household spending is in an increasing trend YoY [8]
The 2026 Swedish legislative catalysts
The Swedish regulatory changes in 2026 may boost Moment Group’s profitability on top of the deleveraging story [6].
The Dance VAT Reduction (25% —> 6%)
Effective July 1, 2026, the VAT on “admission to dance events” (moms på danstillställningar) drops from 25% to 6%. This explicitly includes nightclub entry fees like Moment Group’s Golden Hits and other Wallmans venues
If a guest pays 200 SEK for nightclub entry:
Old rules (25% VAT): Moment Group keeps 160 sek
New rules (6% VAT): Moment Group keeps 188 sek
Net gain of +17.5% increase with 0 cost increase (VAT is taken at the top line)
Estimated Bottom Line Effect (2026):
Wallmans Group’s Q4 2024 revenue is 143M sek and EBIT margin 23%
Assume 10% is dance-related, that’s an additional EBIT of 3.5M sek
Reduced Employer Contributions (19–23 Year Olds)
The Law: Temporary reduction of employer fees (arbetsgivaravgifter) for employees aged 19–23 starting April 1, 2026
Rate Drop: From 31.42 —> 10.21% (Saving ~21.2%).
Moment Group’s exposure is very high here. If you go to some musicals, restaurants, dance clubs, bowling place, etc - you rarely see 25+ year-old working there! Based on industry averages and Moment Group’s activity reports, roughly 25–30% of their workforce (~100–120 FTEs) likely falls into this age bracket.
Financial Calculation:
Assumptions: 100 eligible FTEs, average monthly salary 23,000 SEK [7].
Monthly Savings: $23,000 100 FTE * 21.2% = 551,200 sek / month.
2026 Effect (Q2-Q4): $551,200 * 9 = 5M sek, directly to EBIT
This effect is temporary, potentially only have significant effects on Q4 2026. Though I am sure the extra cash helps increase profitability of the whole group in the future
3. Household Income Surge
Expected to increase +5,700 SEK/month for 2-income household, which is about 5-10% increase on average for the Swedish population
Driven by multiple legislative changes:
Jobbskatteavdrag 2026: A direct income tax cut (~400–500 SEK/person).
Temporary lowered VAT for food.
Real Wage Growth: Wages rising faster than inflation for the first time in years.
Projection for Moment Group:
If this income boost increases sales volume by a range of 2%, it could add to about 1.5-3.0 MSEK to EBIT.
Assuming no organic growth from 2025 to 2026 and no contribution on the Cirkusbygningen re-opening:
FY 2026 EBIT = FY 2025 EBIT + 3.5M sek + 5M sek + 2M sek = 25.5-40.5M sek
FY 2026 Net earnings
= FY2026 EBIT - interest expense (no interest expense due to deduction) - tax = 20-32M sek
Forward multiples for 2026
P/E of 9-11x, this implies market cap of 200-324M sek —> between 50%-230% upside
op. EV/EBIT 8-10x
Pro forma op. EV/EBIT 3.6-5.7 —> between 140%-280% upside
This naturally depends on how the management is able to exploit these legislative tailwinds. But with how they are doing the past years with huge debts (not their fault) in a high interest rate environment, I believe they would exploit the opportunity.
Lastly, why the smart money has not been here?
The “Safety First“ Mandate: large funds are often legally or internally prohibited from investing in companies with low solidity ratio, low shareholders' equity and high debt-to-equity ratio.
Liquidity: smart money usually manages billions. They need to be able to buy or sell millions of kronor worth of shares without moving the price too much.
Similarly, low-to-none analyst coverage.
No dividends.
This is a classic study case of “beating the street“ (If I’m right)
Disclaimer: I am not a licensed financial advisor. I may hold positions in the securities discussed. The content provided in "The Northside" is for informational and educational purposes only and represents the personal opinions of the author. It is not intended to be, and does not constitute, financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, mostly the risk of losing money because you listened to a stranger on the internet. Do your own due diligence.
